[Shadow_Group] Iraqi Election Creates Unusual Alliances (Kind of a Kurd - Iraq 101)

Mon Nov 29 19:15:47 PST 2004

Iraqi Election Creates Unusual Alliances

Dispute Over Timing of Elections Creates Unusual
Alliances, Underscores Iraq's Fragmented Political
Landscape

FROM:
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=288746&CMP=OTC-RSSFeeds0312<http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=288746&CMP=OTC-RSSFeeds0312>
BAGHDAD, Iraq Nov 29, 2004 - Doubts about holding
Iraqi national elections on Jan. 30 produced an
alliance few believed possible Sunni Arabs and Sunni
Kurds united in calling for a delay. Less than 24
hours later, the alliance collapsed after Shiite Arabs
made clear they would not accept any postponement. 

The flap over the election date, which began Friday,
illustrates the complexity of Iraq's ethnic-based
politics. It also provides insights into the welter of
conflicting interests and views in a fragmented
country trying to build democracy in the midst of an
armed uprising and foreign military occupation. 

Sunni Muslim politicians pushed for the delay because
of widespread anger within their community over this
month's attack on the Sunni insurgent base of
Fallujah, which in turn produced a call by Sunni
clerics to boycott the vote. 

In calling for a delay, the Sunnis managed to win
backing of representatives from the country's two
leading Kurdish parties. Collectively, the Kurds and
the Sunni Arabs form about 40 percent of Iraq's nearly
26 million people the rest of whom are mostly Shiites.

But when the Shiite clerical leadership refused to
delay the balloting, the Kurds waffled, claiming they
never intended to agree to a postponement and they
were ready for elections whenever they occur. The
Iraqi National Accord, Prime Minister Ayad Allawi's
party, took part in the meeting that produced the call
for the delay. 

But as soon as the Shiites spoke out, Allawi's
government said it was sticking by the Jan. 30 date
and his Accord party also said it never intended to
join in the call for an election delay. 

One Shiite official, asked not to be identified, said
that if the Shiites lost on the battle over the
election date, they might demand their own autonomous
region in the south similar to what the Kurds have in
the north. 

For the Kurds, a major goal is control of Kirkuk, a
major oil-producing center and ethnically mixed city
that is outside the Kurdish-ruled autonomous region.
The city's major ethnic communities Arabs, Kurds and
Turkomen each consider Kirkuk their own. 

Kurdish parties have been encouraging Kurds who were
displaced from the Kirkuk area by Saddam Hussein, a
Sunni Arab, to return to the city. The goal is to
increase Kurdish numbers in time for a parallel
election Jan. 30, in which voters in the city will
decide whether to join the Kurdish autonomous region. 

Delaying the election would give the Kurds more time
to boost their numbers in Kirkuk, political analysts
say. 

"The Kurdish political parties have interests in
postponing the general elections for a certain period
of time, simply to guarantee that the municipal
elections in Kirkuk will be also postponed," Kurdish
political analyst Assos Hardi said. 

Before last week's postponement call, both Kurdish
parties the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and the
Kurdistan Democratic Party had insisted that the
referendum on the status of Kirkuk should not be held
until the government had implemented Article 58 of
Iraq's interim constitution. 

That article states that all Iraqis, including Kurds,
who were displaced under Saddam's regime, have the
right to return to their homes and receive
compensation. Both parties, however, publicly deny any
link between the timing of the Kirkuk vote and the
national election. 

"These are totally different issues," said PUK
spokesman Sero Kihdar said. "Elections in Kirkuk will
not be possible if the law (Article 58) isn't
implemented. But at the same time, we are ready for
the general elections." 

The contacts between the Kurdish and Sunni Arab
parties was also motivated by their common fear of an
overwhelming Shiite victory, especially if the Sunni
clerics convince many of their followers not to take
part in the election. 

Hardi, the Kurdish analyst, said the Shiites "are
trying, peacefully, to take power in Iraq and all
estimates point to their massive victory." 

Anticipating a big victory, the Shiites want no delay
in the election, believing it will guarantee them the
power long denied them under Ottoman, British and
Saddam's rule. 

Hussain al-Shahristani, who is close to the top Shiite
cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, warned the
generally peaceful Shiite community might resort to
"other alternatives" if the election were delayed. 

Bayan Jaber, a member of a leading Shiite party, said
a delay would require amending the interim
constitution. If that happened, Jaber said "the doors
will be open for other amendments and those calling
for postponement will be the losers at the end." 

The Kurds, for one, aren't anxious for an open-ended
review of the interim constitution. The document gives
the Kurds, estimated at no more than 20 percent of the
population, an effective veto of the permanent
constitution to be drafted by the parliament elected
in January. 

Under the temporary charter, if two-thirds of the
voters in three provinces reject the permanent
constitution, it would fail to win ratification. The
Kurds control three provinces.

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://lists.resist.ca/pipermail/shadowgroup-l/attachments/20041129/37f5f35a/attachment.html>