[news] "We could lose this situation" - CIA on Iraq

[resist]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,1083847,00.html

The Guardian	 November 13, 2003 

"We could lose this situation" 

CIA says insurgents now 50,000 strong 
Crisis talks over transfer of power

Julian Borger in Washington and Rory McCarthy in Baghdad 

The White House yesterday drew up emergency plans to accelerate the transfer
of power in Iraq after being shown a devastating CIA report warning that the
guerrilla war was in danger of escalating out of US control. 

The report, an "appraisal of situation" commissioned by the CIA director,
George Tenet, and written by the CIA station chief in Baghdad, said that the
insurgency was gaining ground among the population, and already numbers in
the tens of thousands. 

One military intelligence assessment now estimates the insurgents' strength
at 50,000. Analysts cautioned that such a figure was speculative, but it
does indicate a deep-rooted revolt on a far greater scale than the Pentagon
had led the administration to believe. 

An intelligence source in Washington familiar with the CIA report described
it as a "bleak assessment that the resistance is broad, strong and getting
stronger". 

"It says we are going to lose the situation unless there is a rapid and
dramatic change of course," the source said. 

"There are thousands in the resistance - not just a core of Ba'athists. They
are in the thousands, and growing every day. Not all those people are
actually firing, but providing support, shelter and all that." 

Although, the report was an internal CIA document it was widely circulated
within the administration. Even more unusually, it carried an endorsement by
Paul Bremer, the civilian head of the US-run occupation of Iraq - a possible
sign that he was seeking to bypass his superiors in the Pentagon and send a
message directly to President George Bush on how bad the situation has
become. 

Proof of the strength of the insurgents and their ability to strike anywhere
in Iraq was provided in another devastating suicide bombing yesterday. 

This time the target was the Italian military police barracks in the
south-eastern city of Nasariya. 

At least 17 Italians and eight Iraqis were killed, striking a blow at one of
the few nations prepared to send troops to help the US and Britain contain
the rising violence. 

Following crisis talks in Washington yesterday, Mr Bremer flew back to
Baghdad armed with proposals to bolster the US-backed Iraqi governing
council with more powers and more resources in an attempt to speed up
elections. 

Under one of the proposals, the council could be expanded or transformed
into a full provisional government backed by an interim constitution. 

That would represent a radical reversal of earlier US policy which was to
put off the transfer of real power to an Iraqi government until after
elections, which in turn would have to await a comprehensive new
constitution. 

The new blueprint, which reverses that methodological progression and which
is closer to what was done in post-war Afghanistan, emerged from an urgently
arranged series of meetings between the president, his top national security
advisers, and Mr Bremer, as the security situation in Iraq continued to
deteriorate rapidly. 

In scenes last night reminiscent of the height of the war, US forces went
back on the offensive with air strikes and armoured assaults on a suspected
guerrilla stronghold near Baghdad. Guerrilla attacks, meanwhile, have become
more frequent, bolder and bloodier. 

In public at least, the defence secretary, Donald Rumsfeld, has insisted
that the attacks are the work of a few remnants of Saddam Hussein's
Ba'athist party and a handful of Islamic jihadists from other Arab
countries. 

It is understood that Mr Bremer's administration is concerned about the
impact of the decision by US forces to escalate their offensive against the
insurgents, anxious that bombing and heavy-handed raids will increase
popular support for the insurgency. 

Mr Bremer refused to provide details of the new US plan, but US and British
officials said he was carrying proposals from Mr Bush aimed at bolstering
the interim Iraqi leadership in the hope of winning the confidence of Iraqis
and paving the way for elections pencilled in for the end of next year. But,
according to some US officials, elections could be held in four to six
months. 

The UN security council has given the Iraqi governing council until December
15 to come up with a constitutional blueprint and organising elections. 

The council, deeply divided by internal disputes, has shown little sign of
meeting that deadline, but the new US proposals would put it under pressure
to accelerate its work and the transfer of power. 

One of the options discussed in the White House yesterday was replacing the
governing council with a new body. 

The council was hand-picked by Washington after the war, largely from
returning exiles, but it has since disappointed US officials by its slow
progress. Many of its 24 members fail to turn up to its meetings, and the
CIA report said the council had little support among the Iraqi population. 

However, the secretary of state, Colin Powell insisted: "We are committed to
the governing council and are prepared to help them in any way we can." 

"We're looking at all sorts of ideas, and we do want to accelerate the work
of reform," Mr Powell said. 

"We want to accelerate the work of putting a legal basis under the new Iraqi
government and we are doing everything we can to get the governing council
equipped with everything they need." 


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