[mobglob-discuss] update on Venezuela

[michael a. lebowitz]

Here are some excerpts from two reports today on www.venezuelanalysis.com:

(1) The verification of signatures on the petitions to recall President 
Chavez. The National Electoral Council has decided (because of questions 
about many signature sheets submitted by the opposition) to set up a 
process to determine the validity of the signatures:

Jorge Rodriguez, one of the CNE's principal members, said that the 1.3 
million disputed signatures would be verified via a "repair" ("reparo") 
process, in which citizens have five days, from March 18 to 22, to either 
file a confirmation or a denial that they signed the petition for the 
recall referendum.

>Exactly 1,000 centers will be set up where citizens may file their 
>corrections to the recall referendum petition. The petition forms will be 
>divided into three categories: rejected signatures, accepted signatures, 
>and signatures under observation. For each of these categories citizens 
>may correct the petition and say whether they should be on list of signers.

Also, Jorge Rodriguez indicated today that many of the petition forms 
written in the same handwriting had signatures that were very similar. 
During the press conference, he presented blown up photos of several 
petition forms where the signatures looked identical.

>According to Rodriguez, what further raised suspicions in the minds of the 
>three electoral council members who voted in favor continuing the 
>verification process of the disputed signatures, was a statistical sample:
>
>"The electoral directorate decided to take a small random sample of the 
>finger prints on the petition forms. We examined 12,421 finger prints. Of 
>these, 33.7% of the sample had finger prints that were illegible. Of these 
>33% with illegible fingerprints, 11.7% correspond to fingerprints from the 
>finger tip, which makes it impossible to read the print."
>
>"When we studied signatures on forms written by the same hand ("flat" 
>forms) the percentage of illegible fingerprints rose to 37% and the 
>percentage of fingertip prints rose to 23%. This strengthens the 
>discussion about the usefulness of employing a statistical sample of all 
>of the disputed forms, which would have resulted in a much more decisive 
>elimination of signatures that the decision we took today."

Electoral Council member Jorge Rodriguez also told of death threats against 
him and his family and that of one other pro-government council member, 
Oscar Battaglini. Rodriguez said that the threats are being directed 
against them via telephone, e-mail, and short wave radio. The threats 
launched via short wave radio even provided the home address of both 
council members and encouraged people to go to their home to attack them.
>Finally, Rodriguez denounced that another infringement on the privacy of 
>council members. Several major Venezuelan newspapers reprinted anonymous 
>advertisements urging that people call the home, cell phone, and office 
>numbers of the three council members that the opposition identifies with 
>the government. Rodriguez added that while the council rejects this kind 
>of pressure, none of it would have any effect on their decisions.

(2) The opposition response


The opposition coalition Coordinadora Democratica called all Chavez 
opponents to "take the streets" and not recognize the authority of election 
officials. The opposition claims that the decision to ask people listed in 
petitions with irregularities to reconfirm their signatures will result in 
the recall referendum not being approved.

Liquor and weapons for opposition demonstrators

Last night, a recent recording of opposition leaders listing new plans to 
generate chaos, was broadcast during a talk show in the state TV station 
Venezolana de Television. The Chavez opponents celebrated the clashes with 
National Guard troops and claimed that they managed to sabotage the G-15 
Summit. The anti-Chavez leaders also claimed that liquor will be 
distributed during other anti-Chavez demonstrations in order to get people 
"charged-up".

"People are still too passive," said anti-Chavez leader Ricardo Koseling, 
one of the persons featured in the recordings, who complained that 
protesters didn't go far enough during their confrontation with National 
Guard troops. Koseling, who commanded a group of protestors that tried to 
break the security perimeter, said that weapons ought to be distributed to 
opposition demonstrators, and that some shots should be fired at National 
Guard troops.


Michael A. Lebowitz
Professor Emeritus
Economics Department
Simon Fraser University
Burnaby, B.C., Canada V5A 1S6

Currently based in Venezuela. Can be reached at

Residencias Anauco Suites
Departamento 601
Parque Central, Zona Postal 1010, Oficina 1
Caracas, Venezuela
(58-212) 573-4111
fax: (58-212) 573-7724 
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