[mobglob-discuss] Third World War?

[martin william fournier]

Fear of nuclear war over Kashmir

Straw to visit Pakistan and India in bid to avert conflict

Ewen MacAskill, diplomatic editor
Wednesday May 22, 2002
The Guardian

Britain sounded a warning yesterday about the "real and very disturbing" 
possibility of nuclear war between India and Pakistan.
The foreign secretary, Jack Straw, is to fly to Delhi and Islamabad next 
week to try to avert the region sliding into a conflict "with potentially 
devastating consequences".

"This is a crisis the world cannot ignore," he said yesterday.

The murder yesterday of a moderate Kashmiri separatist leader plunged the 
region into further turmoil. Abdul Ghani Lone was killed in Srinagar, 
increasing the tension along the Pakistan-India border, where a million 
troops are stationed. Fresh clashes were reported yesterday.

The US and the EU are also to send envoys to India and Pakistan next week.

Whitehall is anxious primarily because India and Pakistan are both nuclear 
powers. There is a fear that, unlike the US and Russia during the cold war, 
they do not have mechanisms such as hotlines in place for defusing a crisis.

Indian and Pakistani forces have been trading fire for months along the line 
that divides Kashmir. Diplomats fear the melting of winter snow in the high 
passes over the next few weeks could bring an increase in military activity.

Pakistan's ambassador to Britain, Abdul Kader Jaffer, said the two were 
"very close" to war. A Foreign Office source said: "Militarily, it is on a 
hair-trigger. With a click of the fingers, it could just go."

A Whitehall source sketched a scenario in which India might attack Pakistani 
positions, be beaten back, respond with an even bigger force and find 
Pakistan retaliating with nuclear weapons.The sudden surge in diplomatic 
activity by the west is aimed at trying to reduce tension before such a 
scenario begins.

Mr Straw said: "This country has long seen itself as a good friend of both 
India and Pakistan, as do I. Fundamentally this is an issue that can only be 
resolved by the parties concerned. The international community's task is to 
assist in that direction. But for the avoidance of doubt, I am not going to 
the region with any pre-cooked peace plan."

The US deputy secretary of state, Richard Armitage, will also go to the 
region and Chris Patten, the EU commissioner for external affairs, is 
scheduled to visit this week.

Mr Straw said: "India and Pakistan both have nuclear weapons and the 
capacity to use them, and have talked publicly about a possible nuclear 
exchange. It is a conflict with potentially devastating consequences for the 
peoples of both countries, and is of profound concern to the whole 
international community."

The Indian and Pakistani armies have exchanged heavy mortar and machine gun 
fire across their border in Kashmir since last Friday, forcing hundreds of 
villagers living on the frontier to move to safety.

The troop buildup entered a crucial phase with the onset of summer and 
Indian allegations that there was no drop in the infiltration of Muslim 
guerrillas from Pakistani Kashmir into Indian Kashmir.

Authorities on the two sides reported nine deaths yesterday, including 
civilians, and both blamed the other for starting the fighting.

There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the death of Lone, a 
pragmatist who sought dialogue with India and opposed violence in the 
separatist struggle. He was shot dead at a cemetery during a service marking 
the assassination of another independence leader 12 years ago.

Since last week's attack on an Indian army camp, in which mostly wives and 
children of soldiers were killed, New Delhi has vowed to take "appropriate 
action" in response and expelled Pakistan's envoy to India.



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