[antiwar-van] The motivation of Palestinians to continue their struggle against Israel has not been undermined

[hanna]

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/487415.html

Tue., October 12, 2004
Israel still stronger than Iran, says report

By Amnon Barzilai

Israel's strategic standing in the Middle East has improved and its security
forces have registered impressive achievements in their war on terror in the
past year, according to Tel Aviv University's Jaffee Center for Strategic
Studies.

At the same time, the motivation of Palestinians to continue their struggle
against Israel has not been undermined, says "The Middle East Strategic
Balance 2003-2004," this year's volume of the Jaffee Center's annual
publication, which was released yesterday to the media.

According to the Jaffee Center report: "From its current position of
strength, Israel is striving to advance its planned disengagement from the
Palestinians."

Alongside the successes, notes the head of the Jaffee Center, Prof. Shai
Feldman, the past year has also been characterized by a failure to exploit
opportunities - first and foremost in the disregard shown for signs of
Syria's willingness to renew peace negotiations.

The Jaffee Center publication also notes that alongside Israel's supremacy
in the region's conventional balance of power, the past year has seen
dangerous developments in Iran's nuclear program.

The deputy head of the Center, Dr. Ephraim Kam, said the United States
seemed closer to the possible use of force to prevent Iran from completing
its nuclear program. According to Kam, any Israeli military operation
against Iran would require dialogue with the United States because U.S.
forces are currently positioned between the two countries.

Prof. Feldman believes the improvement in Israel's strategic standing is not
limited to the field of conventional warfare only, and notes that Israel has
maintained exclusive capabilities in the non-conventional field too. He also
stressed, however, that the last year had seen significant advances in
Iran's nuclear program, particularly in the field of uranium enrichment.

Thus, noted Feldman, Iran is now closer than ever before to the production
of fissile material, which is essential for the manufacture of nuclear
weapons. Feldman added, however, that global attention to the inherent
dangers in Iran's nuclear efforts had increased, especially among the United
States and key European states.

Dr. Kam noted that the current situation in Iran was more complex than
existed in Iraq on the eve of the Israel Air Force's strike on the latter's
nuclear facilities in 1981. Iran, Kam said, had 4-5 nuclear reactors, and
maybe even additional ones that had been built in secret. Hence, he said,
multiple strikes may be needed in order to neutralize Iran's nuclear
capabilities completely.

Kam said that the coming two months would be critical with respect to the
international community's attitude to the development of nuclear weapons in
Iran. Over this period, he said, the International Atomic Energy Agency
would have to decide whether to ask the UN Security Council to adopt a
resolution against Iran's nuclear program.

At the same time, Kam added, Israel and the United States would have to
decide whether to consider a military option.

Jaffee Center researchers Brigadier General (ret.) Shlomo Brom and Yiftah
Shapir came to the conclusion that despite Egypt's acquisition of advanced
American arms, the IDF has preserved its qualitative edge in the
Egypt-Israel military balance.

Brom said the balance of power between states was not measured only in terms
of the quantity of weapons each had, but also on the ability of each to
operate its arms and command and control systems.

"Underlying the ongoing gap is Egypt's failure thus far to implement fully
the Revolution in Military Affairs - that is, to integrate information
technologies and advanced means of command, control and communication
completely to allow optimal use of force in the battlefield," the Jaffee
Center report notes.

Brom said he did not believe that Egypt could surprise the IDF as it did
during the Yom Kippur War because Egypt currently relied on U.S. technology
and U.S. experts in Egypt were reporting on the status of the Egyptian
military.

The Jaffee Center researchers believe that the biggest danger facing Israel
today stems from the non-conventional field and the increased activity of
terror organizations.

According to the Jaffee Center, "Iraq has now become a convenient arena for
jihad ... With the growing phenomenon of suicide bombing, the U.S. presence
in Iraq now demands more and more assets that might have otherwise been
deployed against various dimensions of the global terrorist threat."

Prof. Feldman also warned that Israeli leaders were suppressing the threat
that international terrorists could get their hands on non-conventional
weapons.

Jaffee Center staff member Yoram Schweitzer warned of the danger of the
terror seeping out of Iraq, with one of its possible objectives being to
exploit the instability in Saudi Arabia and take control of the country from
within. "Conquering Saudi Arabia is Bin Laden's wet dream," Schweitzer said.



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